The market for logistics and delivery robots is forecast to be nine times larger in 2032 than it was in 2021. That’s according to technology market research company, IDTechEx.

One reason is that the pandemic has spurred increased adoption of automated and/or autonomous solutions, says the company. This tipping point in the market will lead to greater growth over the next decade.

A briefing document from the company explains, “Driven by COVID and the trend for contactless delivery, service robots for logistics and delivery, specifically, Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR) and Autonomous Guided Vehicles (AGV) have seen much greater adoption thanks to their flexibility, cost-effectiveness, scalability, and efficiency.”

While most such robots currently operate in controlled indoor environments, such as warehouses and factories, often on tracks or on specially designed routes, they will increasingly move outdoors and into last-mile delivery applications.

IDTechEx believes that 2025 will see a further tipping point, as regulations are eased to allow a greater influx of autonomous robots into our towns and cities.

However, to achieve a high level of autonomous mobility with limited human supervision – while maintaining a high safety level in unpredictable urban environments, busy streets, and/or poor weather conditions – new suites of sensors will need to be incorporated.

However, economics and other factors will then come into play. “While cameras have the highest affordability, resolution, and object classification, they have poor performance in a low-visibility environment (e.g., at night),” says the company.

“By contrast, radar systems are immune to low light conditions and are able to accurately measure range and velocity, although they are more expensive than cameras.

“LiDAR presents the best performance for object classification in bad weather/at night, but is significantly more expensive than radar or cameras.”

As a result, the future is likely to see the deployment of a mix of different hardware types, depending on application and cost.

Not discussed in the briefing document is another challenge: how fleets of robots will be safely managed and overseen by remote human operators, who are unlikely to be highly paid, skilled individuals.

Similar trends and challenges are affecting the market for other types of service robot, such as those optimised for cleaning and disinfection tasks.

IDTechEx says, “Driven by the COVID pandemic, cleaning and disinfection service robots have become more popular.

“It is reported by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) that more than 50 service robot providers developed disinfection robots in response to the hygiene requirements of COVID.”

However, the market for cleaning and disinfection robots is likely to see steady, incremental growth rather than steep adoption, says IDTechEx, as the concept has been around for longer and is generally seen as lower risk.

Transform Industry believes that any major accident, injury, or loss of life involved in autonomous, last-mile delivery – including by airborne robots – will act as a brake on adoption in that market, as customer confidence may be shaken by media reports.

By contrast, cleaning and disinfection robots have a less obvious impact on daily lives, even though they may perform more critical tasks. In short, they are less conspicuous and therefore seen as less dangerous by technology sceptics.